I read this post today @
THE BIG LEAD:
"I think that I have the answer to the Tiger Woods vs. Roger Federer debate. The average tennis star has a 1 in 2 chance of winning a match. The average golfer has a 1 in 156 chance of winning a Golf tournament. So which is more improbable, a tennis player winning 36 straight matches, or a golfer winning 7 straight golf tournaments?
Which is less, 1/2 raised to the 36th power, or 1/156 raised to the 7th power. Most people couldn’t estimate either one of those in their head.
The mathematical answer is that it is 10,320 times more difficult for the average golfer to win 7 straight golf tourneys than it is for the average tennis player to win 36 straight. (1 in 2.2 Quadrillion to 1 in 69 Billion). Federer would have to extend his streak to 51 matches to equal the improbability of Tiger Woods’ feat.
If Tiger wins again, then Federer would have to extend to 58 matches. If Tiger matches Byron Nelson’s 11 tourneys in a row, then 80 matches for Federer would be comparable."
- by "Peter" in 2007.
I HAVE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS LOGIC!
There were further posts from others about the terrain always changing in golf, whereas tennis is the same court each time. True, but not entirely - there
are 4 different surfaces in tennis. Anyway, obviously golf IS a tougher and more obstacle-ridden playing field...but I don't think this proves much in comparing the athletic ability that is required to do well at either sport.
Well, time has passed and I think Federer has moved on in the stats race a little better than Woods has - for obvious reasons on Woods' behalf...
Peter's whole point of a 1 in 2 chance (in tennis) vs. a 1 in 156 chance (in golf) is a little unfair on several fronts: Tennis players have to earn their way into the tourneys against many more players than are actually IN the tournament. The tennis circuit is physically tougher. You could just as easily say that it is
easier to actually GET IN to a golf tourney. Besides, how many times is the 156th ranked player going to beat Tiger? It's not like there are 156 equally tough oponents in the golf tourneys. I have also read posts from people stating that golf currently has a lot more talent in it than tennis does - not sure about that stat?!
Federer is the best now at his sport, bar none...I don't think we can say the same for Tiger just yet...not that he won't be. Woods
may already the best in golf - even when he is out! He
could also be considered the best golfer of any decade. But it all isn't "in stone" the way that Federer (now) is in his sport - which
actually IS a "sport"...and not a recreational activity - hint, hint.
As I already mentioned, we should also consider is the physicality of tennis vs. golf: Tennis is MUCH tougher on the body and requires more bodily control at high speeds and strange angles. Federer's finesse and grace of movement is unparalleled...not to mention that he does possess power as well!
Yeah, golf courses might be a (more) challenging terrain, but tennis players don't get to consult with a partner (caddy) before every shot.
Golf doesn't really take into account reflexes or thinking on your feet.
Out of shape dudes can win at golf! (i'm looking at you John Daly.)
When Tiger loses, he usually loses BIG. Federer is almost always 2nd place when he loses (which is rare). Consistency does count for something!
To quote the tennis player, James Blake: "I mean, Woods has won a lot of majors, but it's not in that match play situation where you have one bad day and you're out. That's what we do in tennis. That means Federer can't have one bad day." Golfers are allowed to suck for a day in a major tourney and still win!
Woods plays a game that is more respected by the people that run things in the world. That, a catchy name and his unique minority status in a (nearly) totally white-ruled sport, ALL go to make him (perhaps most importantly) A BIGGER DRAW ON TELEVISION...but not necessarily a more dominating athlete.
I also think that Tiger has regularly shown a larger range of emotion than Federer: Woods is a BIG pouter when he loses and a fist-pumping, All-American showboat when he wins - again, ALL good for TV.
...and I won't even go into the fact that Federer proved to be a better role model BEFORE the vote.
Lance Armstrong actually earned more votes from the Associated Press than Federer did as well...and he might have deserved them?! But, c'mon - cycling is boring to watch! Did Lance show the best ENDURANCE of the decade...while beating cancer, no less? Sure he did...
Oh yeah, one last thing: Prize money
QUADRUPLED since Tiger joined the PGA Tour!!! Game, Set, Match. ha!
Nonetheless, the "ATHLETE of the Decade"
should have went to Federer.
(The biased) KW
